A provocatively titled posting at the Monkey Cage suggests that Non Citizens Voting Could Decide the 2014 Election.

I discussed the Electoral Studies article that the Monkey Cage posting is based on at Early Voting.net, and expressed concerns then that the article made a number of very heroic assumptions to be able to claim that non-citizens were voting in significant numbers, and even more heroic assumptions to assume that these votes “created the filibuster proof majority in 2008,” as the authors claim.

Now the authors have doubled down, writing on Monkey Cage that non-citizens “could decide” the 2014 election, whatever that means in the context of House, Senate, gubernatorial, state legislative, and other races.

I’m engaged with my professional association in trying to show the public relevance of political science, but this isn’t exactly what I had in mind.  There are heated public debates going on right now about the voter identification, and regardless of which side of this debate you are on, it’s dangerous to inject yourself into this debate based on a first look at a question like this, based on what many other scholars consider to be extremely tenuous assumptions.

Rick Hasen has posted a very nice followup on his blog that summarizes the situation far better than I can.

For those readers interested in the more detailed criticisms, I’ve provided a link to the whole thread from the Election Law listserv.  (Against listserv policy, apologies to fellow list members.  Suffice it to say that there are trenchant criticisms, and I’ve encouraged those posting to enter the public dialogue.)

I encourage readers to pay especially close attention to any critiques provided by Michael McDonald.  McDonald is the expert on identifying the number of non-citizens among the population, an exercise he engages in every two years in order to produce his estimates of the voting age population (VAP), voting eligible population (VEP), and voter turnout.

This one is not over, I am sure of that, and I expect to see additional scrutiny and replications in the next few months.  This will not be soon enough to avoid inevitable post-election charges that in-person voter impersonation is rampant.