Early vote from the polls, limited to battleground states Early vote from the polls, limited to battleground states

Here’s the link again.  A lot fewer points because a lot fewer respondents.  The Democratic advantage among respondents who say they have already voted is pretty large.


Parsing the Early Vote From Polling Data Parsing the Early Vote From Polling Data

If I did this right using the Ipsos/Reuters “American Mosaic” site, the graphic below shows early voter preferences over the past week. I selected on “registered voters” and “voted in 2012” for the display.

This corresponds pretty well to te trends in support reported by Nate Silver, Real Clear Politics, and others.


Early In Person vs. Absentee Voting in Florida, a Primer from Dan Smith

Dan Smith, my colleague at University of Florida, provides this useful guide.

Early Voting Map updated as of Monday November 5 Early Voting Map updated as of Monday November 5

The Oregon VBM Insufficient Postage Snafu settled .. for now


More Oregon Smackdown: Third party ballot delivery problems

I am no fan of the Oregon law that allows third parties to collect and deliver ballots.  But the law is the law, and apparently some election officials and members of law enforcement don’t understand the law.

Fact is, however, this remains legal in Oregon, and the state legislature refuses to change the law because politicians want to have their campaigners collect ballots.  I don’t like it, it makes Oregon almost unique, and I’ve been trying to get the law changed.  I blogged about it two years ago

I don’t like what the canvassers did in West Linn, but it is legal.

P.S. I don’t want to defend Rep. Julie Parrish who is in hot water over some robocalls questioning voters’ registration status,  but the WWeek reference to her Facebook page is inaccurate–she correctly states that third party ballot collection is legal, just in her opinion, the canvassers must have broken the law because:

Come on now…..if the police made them take the ballot back…that should say something to you….I believe the West Linn PD over the House Democrats Spokesperson….
Personally, I suspect the police had no idea, but Parrish is factual in the FB posts.


The curse of Gerber and Green redux

This in from a local blogger.  The Gerber/Green reference is to this article about “shaming” and vote mobilization.

Early Voting Rates Nationwide Early Voting Rates Nationwide

This should answer a few reporters’ questions. Courtesy of Michael McDonald’s website. Blank states do not mean no early voting–it means there is no data or insufficient data that I felt comfortable plotting the information.

Early Voting Rates among Democrats in Florida

Courtesy of Jacob Canter, Reed junior and late night Stata learner …

The map was produced using the spmap add-on to Stata.

Democratic Early Voting in Florida

The vote by mail and insufficient postage spat in Oregon: Big Pot Money, Signature Gathering, and More!

I have been asked to weigh in by a number of my colleagues after Dan Meek alerted the widely read Election Law listserv of communications between Steve Trout, the Director of Elections in Oregon, and the Postmaster General regarding Oregon ballots with insufficient postage.

What I told the emailers, and Rick when he was in town on Saturday, is that there is a backstory here.  It may not speak to the specifics of the postage question, but it’s fascinating nonetheless.

Now Jeff Mapes of the Oregonian is on the story, as is a local television station, so I’ll lay the rest out for readers to evaluate.  It’s a lot more than most of you want to know!

The short story is that Kate Brown, Oregon Secretary of State, is in a fierce race with a Republican challenger.  Oregon Secretaries of State almost never lose, and Brown is likely to win by a small margin.  There is some bad blood between Brown and Meek, and even more between Brown and Robert Wolfe, who is running against Brown on the Progressive Party label. Continue reading