LEO 2019 Survey Papers for SPSA

The first paper, “The Problems of Minimal Support: Considerations for an Establishment Survey of Local Election Officials”, is co-authored by Jay Lee and Paul Gronke.

Here is the abstract (click https://blogs.reed.edu/earlyvoting/spsa_sampling_paper/ to view the full paper).

In this paper, we provide evidence to support the use of a specific sampling algorithm for drawing random samples of local election officials (LEOs) in the United States, using the sampling package in the R statistical package. The paper is part of a larger project that examines the backgrounds, professional orientations, and opinions of LEOs in order to better characterize their role as “stewards of democracy.” The enormous diversity of local jurisdictions and the hyperfederalized institutional structure of American elections combine to create methodological challenges to drawing a random sample that allows generalizations both about LEOs and also about the American voting experience. The paper explores the statistical foundations of a number of unequal inclusion probability sampling methods implemented in the sampling package. We show using simulations that the extremely skewed distribution of jurisdictions (by population size) causes anomalies in the sampling method, resulting in overly variant samples and extreme values for sampling weight when using the minimal support sampling algorithn. We further show that the “random systematic” sampling method is superior, resulting in lower variance estimates, and is just as easy to implement as “minimal support”.

The second paper, “Staffing the Stewards of Democracy: the Demographic and Professional Profile of America’s Local Election Officials”, is co-authored by Paul Manson, Natalie Adona, and Paul Gronke.

Here is the abstract (click https://blogs.reed.edu/earlyvoting/staffing-the-stewards/ to view the full paper):

Drawing on the results of two national surveys of local election officials (LEOs) in 2018 and 2019, we explore the demographic and professional profile of America’s “stewards of democracy” and compare our data to other surveys of the local bureaucracy and civil service. Our demographic findings are consistent with prior surveys of LEOs, in which we find that the typical LEO in the United States is female, white, over 55, and earns just over $50,000 a year. We are interested in comparing the demographic profile of the typical LEO to other local officials and government employees. We want to understand if there is something unique about election administration that leads females to advance to leadership positions, and in many cases, choose to run for office, in order serve as the local official administer- ing elections and supporting our democratic system. We compare our results with employment data from the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as a first step into answering these questions as well as exploring larger questions of representative bureaucracy. We also offer a first look at LEO job satisfaction and data that provide a glimpse into how people enter into the profession of election administration.