Monthly Archives: October 2012

Nate Silver and the Binomial Theorem

There has been a lot of chatter about the meaning of Nate Silver’s current election forecast. Unfortunately, what the commentary reveals is less about Silver and more about statistical illiteracy.  Silver’s model is complex, but the basic logic is quite … finish reading Nate Silver and the Binomial Theorem

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A gentle guide to elections data analysis

A hat tip for today’s posting goes to Charles Stewart of MIT, whose “Political Science Laboratory” course inspired me to engage my introductory statistics students in data management using real data sources. Regular readers of this blog may have seen graphics plotting … finish reading A gentle guide to elections data analysis

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Partisanship, Race, and Early Voting in North Carolina

(This post is co-authored with Jacob Canter, Reed sophomore and EVIC research assistant and is crossposted from earlyvoting.net) The early ballots are beginning to pile up in North Carolina, and we can finally start to discern some patterns of turnout … finish reading Partisanship, Race, and Early Voting in North Carolina

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Guest Posting: The Victory Lab visits PPLS Oct 4, 2012

Guest posting by Jacob Canter, Reed junior and PPLS Steering Committee: Sasha Issenberg, dressed in a dark blazer and sporting a five o’clock shadow, was speaking at Reed College to talk about his new book The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of … finish reading Guest Posting: The Victory Lab visits PPLS Oct 4, 2012

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Everyone is middle class in the United States, so Romney’s claims about capital gains may resonate

Ezra Klein correctly points out: Romney said “Every middle-income taxpayer no longer will pay any tax on interest, dividends or capital gains.” As this graph from the Tax Policy Center shows, few people in the middle-income brackets actually pay capital … finish reading Everyone is middle class in the United States, so Romney’s claims about capital gains may resonate

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Swing States or a Swinging Nation?

There is a really cool graphic in today’s 538 blog at the NY TImes that is making its way around the internet.  The graphic is creative and awfully pretty, but the focus on individual states as independent entities, “swinging” in response to … finish reading Swing States or a Swinging Nation?

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A new take on partisan polarization: Dems and Reps just don’t like one another

The results of a recent article “Affect, Not Ideology: A Social identity Perspective on PolarizAtion” by Iyenger, Sood, and Lelkes in Public Opinion Quarterly (gated) probably won’t come as news to many: Democrats and Republicans dislike one another.  The article provides an … finish reading A new take on partisan polarization: Dems and Reps just don’t like one another

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My voter file moment at Vanderbilt

My day in Nashville has been wonderful–thanks again to John Geer and the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions for hosting me. My lecture had one lowlight and one highlight.  I wonder if the highlight is shared by my good friends … finish reading My voter file moment at Vanderbilt

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Ballot Tracking in NC

I am heading off to Vanderbilt University tomorrow to lecture to John Geer’s introductory American politics class, and I am pretty sure there will be a relative in the audience! I have been slashing away at the North Carolina absentee ballot file tonight, just to show … finish reading Ballot Tracking in NC

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Micro Economies, Micro-Micro Economies, and the Political Challenges in Metro Portland

This article by Richard Florida will surely be used as further evidence of the wisdom of the Portland’s economic development trajectory for the past decade.  Florida, after all, was the guru of the “young creative class” model. Here’s the problem–just … finish reading Micro Economies, Micro-Micro Economies, and the Political Challenges in Metro Portland

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